Four Factors Affect The Foreign Trade Situation In The Next Year

By Himfr Paul

Planning and Finance Ministry of Commerce and the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation 28, 2003 release, “China’s foreign trade situation,” Prospects of the 2004 report of the world economy and world trade, the overall situation. Report that the overall situation continues to become better, and still need to focus on related issues.

Four factors influence can not be ignored:

First, the export tax rebate system reform on exports can not be ignored.

Since January 1, 2004, China will implement a new export tax rebate policy to reduce export tax rebate rate will increase the cost of export enterprises, export expansion may affect the enthusiasm, some enterprises had been in the protection of the low-profit goods may be give up the export of some labor-intensive products face intense competition may be forced to withdraw from the international market, thus making the total expansion of China’s export growth and the impact of varying degrees. Meanwhile, the export tax rebate increment after the implementation of the central and local share, will lead to less new export tax rebates and limited inter-regional issues such as acquisition, also need attention.

Second, trade protectionism, the threat of China’s export growth further increased.

In recent years, a variety of trade protectionism against China acts of the rise, the development of export trade to China pose a serious threat. Therefore, we should attach great importance to the development trend of international trade protectionism, to take effective countermeasures to prevent its employment in China, foreign exchange income and social stability of the possible negative impact.


Third, WTO transition period after the response to a very difficult task.

In 2004 after China’s accession to W TO commitments to fulfill the crucial year, most of the transitional measures would expire at the end of 2004.

From December 2003 onwards, distribution, insurance, banking, transportation, telecommunications, advertising and other services, not only opening up geographic expansion, and foreign stocks than increasing, reducing barriers to entry; in 2004 to abolish the oil, natural rubber, some Automotive and parts of 50 tariff lines of products of non-tariff measures, tariff quotas for agricultural products and fertilizer will further increase capacity. This will make China’s accession to WTO is facing after the response more difficult task that requires great attention caused by the parties concerned.

Fourth, China’s trade balance may have been changed.

Since the second half of 2002, as export growth than import growth continues to significantly cut China’s trade surplus. View from 2004, export growth might fall sharply, while domestic demand will remain high level, long-standing trade surplus situation may be broken. From the Chinese macro-economic level, the trade surplus in a given period of reduced or even deficit, on the domestic economy will not cause a significant impact, its impact on China’s economic development more dependent on the structure of imports. If the macro-control on the import structure of misconduct, may impact certain domestic industries vulnerable. Therefore, the need to give full attention to the structure of imports and import of changes in trend.

Will Play a Positive Role in Promoting the Four

First of all, developments in major economies, the current global economy is increasingly clear signs of accelerating recovery.

Speed up economic recovery in Japan and the U.S., the world’s investment pick up, stabilize international oil prices and other favorable factors have led to the overall world economy and trade situation will be further to the good. Expected annual growth rate of world economy in 2004 expected to reach 4.1%, developed and developing countries economic growth will be 2.9% and 5.0%, higher than the level this year. World trade will continue to rise, annual growth rate of world merchandise trade is expected to reach 5.4%, much higher than 2.9% in 2003. Global transnational direct investment will also be bottoming out, there may be a moderate recovery.

Second, the international commodity market conditions in 2004 warmed, the price rise.

Accelerate the pace of economic recovery in the world, led by the international commodity markets is expected in 2004, demand and prices will be General Improvement. Bulk agricultural products affected by supply and demand factors, prices are generally bullish in 2004. Total world supply of steel products than the total demand, but the developed countries caused by economic restructuring, the continued cuts to the international market prices of steel products will show a recovery trend. Textile market, increasing international competition, but countries around the world, the high demand for textiles is constantly increasing. Mechanical and electrical products, IT products in the international market has taken the lead to restore the economy. The international oil market supply and demand becomes more balanced, in 2004 oil prices expected to remain at 22-28 dollars per barrel “normal price range.

Third, the developed countries in the ascendant wave of industrial restructuring and the transfer, import and export for China to expand trade scale and create more opportunities.

Currently, to multinational companies led by information technology represented a new round of worldwide industrial restructuring and the transfer process in the ascendant. With the gradual improvement of the world economic situation, will promote the international direct investment to become more active again. In recent years, China’s investment environment has improved, especially the Yangtze River, Pearl River Delta has the two advantages of industrial clusters, foreign capital continued to flow into China, the prospect of better foreign direct investment-led growth of China’s import and export trade even open space.

Fourth, China will continue to maintain rapid economic growth, institutional policy environment tends to improve.

From the current trend of economic development, China’s economy has entered a new round of growth cycle. In 2004, China will adhere to the principle of expanding domestic demand, continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, national economy will maintain a rapid growth momentum is expected to more than 7% GDP growth is expected. Plenary Session on perfecting the socialist market economic system to a comprehensive plan and work plans, a longer period in 2004 and China’s economic and trade development will have a significant positive impact.

Report said, internal and external environment does not occur if major changes, the initial estimated, in 2004 China’s foreign trade growth Rengqiang stable Di, but considering the high base year, import and export, the export tax rebate rate down Deng factors, import and export Maoyitebie is export growth will likely come down significantly.

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